§ 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

(a) The risk models used to estimate probability of causation for covered employees under EEOICPA will be based on risk models updated from the 1985 NIH Radioepidemiological Tables. These 1985 tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor cohort. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are updating the tables, replacing them with a sophisticated analytic software program. This program, the Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program (IREP) 1 , models the dose-response relationship between ionizing radiation and 33 cancers using morbidity data from the same Japanese atomic bomb survivor cohort. In the case of thyroid cancer, radiation risk models are based on a pooled analysis of several international cohorts 1a . 1 NIOSH-IREP is available for public review on the NIOSH homepage at: www.cdc.gov/niosh/ocas/ocasirep/html. 1a Ron E, Lubin JH, Shore RE, et al. “Thyroid cancer after exposure to external radiation: a pooled analysis of seven studies.” Radiat. Res. 141:259-277, 1995. (b) NIOSH will change the risk models in IREP, as needed, to reflect the radiation exposure and disease experiences of employees covered under EEOICPA, which differ from the experiences of the Japanese atomic bomb survivor cohort. Changes will be incorporated in a version of IREP named NIOSH-IREP, specifically designed for adjudication of claims under EEOICPA. Possible changes in IREP risk models include the following: (1) Addition of risk models to IREP, as needed, for claims under EEOICPA (e.g., malignant melanoma and other skin cancers) (2) Modification of IREP risk models to incorporate radiation exposures unique to employees covered by EEOICPA (e.g., radon and low energy x rays from employer-required medical screening programs, adjustment of relative biological effectiveness distributions based on neutron energy). (3) Modification of IREP risk models to incorporate new understanding of radiation-related cancer effects relevant to employees covered by EEOICPA (e.g., incorporation of inverse dose-rate relationship between high LET radiation exposures and cancer; adjustment of the low-dose effect reduction factor for acute exposures). (4) Modification of IREP risk models to incorporate new understanding of the potential interaction between cancer risk associated with occupational exposures to chemical carcinogens and radiation-related cancer effects. (5) Modification of IREP risk models to incorporate temporal, race and ethnicity-related differences in the frequency of certain cancers occurring generally among the U.S. population. (6) Modifications of IREP to facilitate improved evaluation of the uncertainty distribution for the probability of causation for claims based on two or more primary cancers.