§ 81.11 Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

(a) EEOICPA requires use of the uncertainty associated with the probability of causation calculation, specifically requiring the use of the upper 99% confidence interval (credibility limit) estimate of the probability of causation estimate. As described in the NCI document, 2 uncertainty from several sources is incorporated into the probability of causation calculation performed by NIOSH-IREP. These sources include uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by different radiation types (relative biological effectiveness or RBE); the relationship between the rate at which a radiation dose is incurred and the level of cancer risk produced (dose and dose rate effectiveness factor or DDREF); and, the role of non-radiation risk factors (such as smoking history). 2 Draft Report of the NCI-CDC Working Group to Revise the 1985 NIH Radioepidemiological Tables, May 31, 2000, p. 17-18, p. 22-23. (b) NIOSH-IREP will operate according to the same general protocol as IREP for the analysis of uncertainty. It will address the same possible sources of uncertainty affecting probability of causation estimates, and in most cases will apply the same assumptions incorporated in IREP risk models. Different procedures and assumptions will be incorporated into NIOSH-IREP as needed, according to the criteria outlined under § 81.10.